CLIVAR Climate Dynamics Panel (CDP) annual workshop: External versus internal variability on decadal and longer time scales

Monday, September 12, 2022 to Friday, October 21, 2022
Event City: 
Online
Event Attendance: 
Open
Event Contact: 
Liping
Event Description: 

CLIVAR Climate Dynamics Panel (CDP) annual workshop: 

External versus internal variability on decadal and longer time scales

 

Online 6 weekly 2-hour sessions from September 14th to October 21st, 2022

 download the pdf flyer here

1. Description                                                   
2. Format
3. Abstract submission
4. Programme
5. Organizing committee

Description

The International CLIVAR Climate Dynamics Panel (CDP) plans to organize workshops annually. The first CDP annual workshop will target our understanding of internal and externally forced variability in the climate system, their interaction on decadal timescales and longer, and the effects of variability on extreme events. We invite submissions on the topic with the aim of tackling the following overarching questions:

How to isolate the relative contributions of external and internal variability to observed decadal and longer variability?

How do the various external forcings modulate internal variability 

Progress in narrowing observational and modeling uncertainties in external and internal variability

Effects of external and internal variability on extreme events

We welcome studies based on models (including SMILEs), theory, historical and proxy observations, novel methods (e.g., ensemble paleoclimate reanalysis). The goal of this workshop is to foster discussion that will stimulate focused research on this important topic.

Format

The workshop will consist of 6 weekly 2-hour sessions from September 14th to October 21st, 2022, including 4 oral sessions, 1 poster session and 1 final panel discussion. The sessions will be on each Wednesday with the timings varying to accommodate participation from different time zones.

Programme

 

Session 1: 14th September, 2022 (Wednesday)
Isolate the relative contributions of external and internal variability to observed decadal and longer variability
Recording

Time (UTC)

Chairs: Natalie Burls, Noel Keenlyside

12:55-15:00

Topic

Presenter

Abstract

12:55-13:00

Opening remark

Noel Keenlyside

 

13:00-13:20

Talk 1: Spurious Pacific Connections to Internal Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Introduced by the Global Residual Method

Clara Deser (NCAR, USA)

Download Abstract

13:20-13:40

Talk 2: A stronger Walker circulation and colder eastern equatorial Pacific in the early 21st century: a transient forced response to global warming versus natural variability

Alexey Fedorov (Yale University and LOCEAN/Sorbonne University, USA)

Download Abstract

13:40-14:00

Talk 3: Human Emissions Drive the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Jeremy Klavans (University of Colorado, USA)

Download Abstract

14:00-14:20

Talk 4: Anomalous SST trends 1979-present: Internal variability or systematic climate model forced response bias?

Robert Jnglin Wills (University of Washington, USA)

Download Abstract

14:20-15:00

Q&A

Session 2: 21st September 2022 (Wednesday)
Modulation of internal variability by external forcings

 Time (UTC)

Chairs: Michael Byrne, Juliette Mignot, Sarah Kang

5:00-6:30

Topic

Presenter

 

5:00-5:20

Talk 5: Relative roles of ozone-depleting substances, greenhouse gases and internal variability on recent Southern Hemisphere stratosphere-troposphere coupled circulation trends

Antara Banerjee (CIRES/NOAA, USA)

Download   Abstract

5:20-5:40

Talk 6: The Sun’s role in decadal climate predictability in the North Atlantic

Annika Drews (Danish Meteorological Institute, Denmark)

Recording
 Abstract

5:40-6:00

Talk 7: Weakening of the Silk Road teleconnection pattern under global warming in CMIP6 projections

Yu Kosaka, University of Tokyo, Japan

Recording
 Abstract

6:00-6:30

Q&A

Session 3: 28th September 2022 (Wednesday)
Progress in narrowing observational and modeling uncertainties in external and internal variability
Recording

 Time (UTC)

Chairs: Noel Keenlyside, Alexey Karpechko

15:00-16:30

Topic

Presenter

Abstract

15:00-15:20

Talk 8: Implications of historical radiative forcing and its uncertainties for understanding observed climate variability and change

Amanda Maycock (University of Leeds, UK)

Download Abstract

15:20-15:40

Talk 9: Reconstructing internal and forced centennial variability in the Southern Ocean using data assimilation

Hugues Gooses (Universite catholique de Louvain, Belgium)

Download Abstract

15:40-16:10

Q&A

Session 4: 5th October 2022 (Wednesday)
Effects of external and internal variability on extreme events

Time (UTC)

Chairs: Natalie Burls, Juliette Mignot

15:00-17:00

Topic

Presenter

Abstract

15:00-15:20

Talk 10: The Big Breakup: A mid-20th Century Transition in the Behavior of Modes of Climate Variability

Amy Clement (University of Miami, USA)

Download Abstract
Recording

15:20-15:40

Talk 11: The Decadal Variability of Extreme European Heat and Drought Stress

Laura Suarez-Gutierrez (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Germany)

Download Abstract

15:40-16:00

Talk 12: Relative Contributions of Internal and External Drivers for Decadal Rainfall Extremes in Mainland Southeast Asia Over the Last Millennium

Shawn Wang (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, USA)

Download Abstract
Recording

     16:00-16:20 Talk 13: Assessing the influence of low-frequency internal variability on extreme events Laurent Terray (CECI, CNRS/Cerfacs, France)

Download Abstrac
Recording

16:20-17:00

Q&A
Recording

Session 5: 12th October 2022 (Wednesday)
Poster Gallery

The poster session is composed of lightning talks (1 min and only for the Early Career Scientists) followed by the poster gallery where people can review all the posters on one webpage and can freely talk to the presenters. 
 

 Time (UTC)

Chairs

5:30-7:30

Alexey Karpechko, Sarah Kang

 

 

14:30-16:30

Noel Keenlyside, Juliette Mignot: Natalie Burls, Michael Byrne

 

 

Session 6: 19th October, 2022 (Wednesday)
Plenary discussion

Recording

 Time (UTC)

Chairs 

14:30-16:00-16:00

Theme 1: Doug Smith
Theme 2: Yen-Ting Hwang
Theme 3: Amy Clement
Theme 4: Laura Suarez-Gutierrez

 

Scientific Organizing committee

• Sarah Kang (Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology)
• Noel Keenlyside (University of Bergen)
• Juliette Mignot (IRD/Sorbonne Université)
• Natalie Burls (GMU College of Science)
• Alexey Karpechko (Finnish Meteorological Institute)
• Michael Byrne (Univ. St Andrews)

Abstract submission

Please register and submit the abstract here. Please kindly note that oral sessions are intended to set the stage for the panel discussion so there will be very few abstracts selected for oral presentation.

 

Abstract submission deadline: June 24th (Extended to July 1st)                                                                                                                    

Registration deadline: September 1st

                                                                                                    

 

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