Talks - Understanding the Role of the Ocean

Monday, September 20, 2010


Introduction - G. Danabasoglu (NCAR)

Decadal Climate Prediction: Challenges And Opportunities - J. Hurrell (NCAR)

Session I: Observed Oceanic Decadal Variability (Chair: J. Hurrell and B. Sloyan)


What Do Observations Tell Us About The Changing MOC? - S. Cunningham (NOC)


Arctic Sea Ice Predictability - M. Holland (NCAR)

Observed Decadal Variability In The Indo-Pacific Sector - C. Deser (NCAR)

Decadal Climate Variability In And Around The Pacific: Causes And Predictability - S. Power (BoM), S. McGregor (IPRC), G. Kociuba (BoM), J. Callaghan (BoM), N. Holbrook (Uni. Tasmania) and D. Rodriguez (QDPIF)

The Many Flavours Of Southern Ocean Variability Determined From Limited Observations - B. Sloyan (CSIRO)

The Challenges Of Using Ocean Modeling To Predict Coral Reef Ecosystem Response - J. Kleypas (NCAR)

What Is Causing The Decadal Warming Trend In Antarctic Bottom Water In The Abyssal Atlantic Ocean? - M. P. Meredith (BAS), A. C. Naveira Garabato (NOC), A. L. Gordon (Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory), P. Abrahamsen (BAS), L. Jullion (NOC), G. C. Johnson (PMEL)


Forced Versus Intrinsic Variability Of The Kuroshio Extension System On The Decadal Timescales - B. Qiu (University of Hawaii at Manoa), S. Chen (University of Hawaii at Manoa), and N. Schneider (University of Hawaii at Manoa)

Parallel Break-out Discussions of Session I

Discussion Leads for each group: B. Sloyan, K. Trenberth, J. Hurrell
Rapporteurs: J. Kleypas, S. Cunningham, M. Holland


Posters and Reception


Tuesday, September 21, 2010


Welcome by NCAR - R. Wakimoto, Director of NCAR


Session II: Decadal Climate Variability and the Role of the Ocean (Chair: S. Griffies)


The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation And Climate - Variability, Predictability And Change - T. Delworth, R. Zhang, S. Zhang, T. Rosati, K. Dixon, R. Msadek, F. Zeng, H. C. Lee and W. Anderson (NOAA GFDL)

Decadal Prediction For The Atlantic - J. Marotzke (MPI-M)


North Pacific And North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability: Origin, Predictability, And Implications For Model Development - M. Latif (IFM GEOMAR)

Issues In Exploring Mechanisms Of Decadal Variability With CORE-II Forced Global Ocean Models - C. Boening (IFM-GEOMAR) and H. Drange (Uni. Bergen)


Sensitivity of simulated Atlantic multi-decadal variability to ocean model formulation and physics - S. Griffies (NOAA GFDL), G. Danabasoglu (NCAR) and S. Yeager (NCAR)

Eddies in global ocean models, meridional overturning circulation, and interannual variability - A.-M. Treguier (IFREMER)

A Non-Normal Perspective On MOC Variability And Predictability - L. Zanna (Uni. Oxford), E. Tziperman (Harvard), P. Heimbach (MIT), A. M. Moore (Uni. California)

Separating A Robust Response To External Forcing From Natural Patterns Of Variability In The Pacific - A. Solomon and M. Newman (CIRES/University of Colorado and NOAA/ESRL)

Parallel Break-Out Discussions of Session II

Discussion Leads for each group: G. Danabasoglu, H. Drange, S. Griffies
Rapporteurs: A. Pirani, R. Msadek, S. Yeager


Wednesday, September 22, 2010


Session III: Initialization, Predictability, and Predictions (Chair: W. Hazeleger)


Limits Of Initial Value Decadal Predictability - G. Branstator (NCAR) and Haiyan Teng (NCAR)

Decadal Variability, Predictability And Prediction: Progress, Challenges And Opportunities - R. Sutton, E. Hawkins, D. Hodson and J. Robson (Uni. Reading)

Decadal Prediction Strategies: Recommendations And Illustrations From CLIVAR EASYINIT - W. Hazeleger (KNMI)

Recent Progress In Ocean Reanalysis And Initialization At ECWMF - M. Balmaseda, Linus Magnusson, Kristian Mogensen and Franco Molteni (ECMWF)

A Metrics Framework To Assess And Validate Decadal Climate Predictions And Simulations - L. Goddard (IRI), on behalf of the US CLIVAR Decadal Predictability Working Group

Decadal Predictions with EC-Earth - First Results - B. Wouters, G. J. van Oldenborgh, W. Hazeleger (KNMI)

First Results Of CMIP5 Hindcasts Experiments At IPSL - J. Mignot, S. Labetoulle, D. Swingedouw, E. Guilyardi, S. Masson and G. Madec (LOCEAN, IPSL)

Decadal Prediction Of North Atlantic Hurricane Frequency - D. Smith, R. Eade, N. Dunstone, D. Fereday, J. Murphy, H. Pohlmann and A. Scaife (UK Met Office)

Predicting And Projecting Hurricane Activity Changes - G. Vecchi (NOAA GFDL)


On North American Decadal Climate For 2011-2020 - M. Hoerling (NOAA ESRL), A. Kumar (NOAA CPC), J. Hurrell (NCAR), Xiaowei Quan (NOAA ESRL)


Parallel Break-Out Discussions of Session III

Discussion Leads for each group: V. Metha, W. Hazeleger, B. Kirtman
Rapporteurs: L. Terray, L. Goddard, A. Solomon


Thursday, September 23, 2010


Session IV: Ocean and Coupled Synthesis (Chair: K. Haines)


Ocean Syntheses: Status And Limitations - P. Heimbach (MIT) and R. Ponte (AER Inc.)

Errors In Ocean Syntheses: Estimation And Impact - A. Koehl (Uni. Hamburg)

Decadal Hindecasts, Predictions And Predictability at GFDL - T. Rosati (NOAA GFDL)

Two Tales Of Initializing Decadal Climate Predictions With The ECHAM5/MPI-OM Model - D. Matei (MPI-M), H. Pohlmann (MPI-M, UK Met Office), J. Jungclaus (MPI-M), W. Muller (MPI-M), H. Haak (MPI-M) and J. Marotzke (MPI-M)

Sea-Ice Initialization In EC-EARTH - K. Wyser (SMHI), M. Caian (SMHI), T. Königk (SMHI), C. Jones (SMHI), and C. König Beatty (Université Catholique de Louvain)

Data requriements for ocean reanalyses - D. Stammer (U. Hamburg)

Discussion Leads for each group: K. Haines, M. Balmaseda, D. Stammer
Rapporteurs: N. Howe, D. Matei, P. Heimbach


Workshop Closing and Summary Discussion Session

Discussion Leads: B. Sloyan, S. Griffies, W. Hazeleger, K. Haines
Rapporteurs: A. Pirani, G. Danabasoglu