Time (UTC)

Agenda

Presenter

Abstract/Recording

14:00-16:00

Session 1 (Chairs: Ingo Richter; Kim Cobb)

14:00-14:30

Plenary talk 1: Tropical Basin Interactions on subseasonal to interannual time scales

Joke Lübbecke (GEOMAR and Kiel University, Germany)

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14:30-15:00

Plenary talk 2: Holocene trends and variability changes in tropical basin interlinkages

Pascale Bracconot (IPSL, France)

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15:00-16:00

Poster Session 1

16:00-21:00

Break

21:00-23:00 

Session 2 (Chairs: Yuko Okumura; Noel Keenlyside)

21:00-21:30

Plenary talk 3: A Review of the Interbasin Impacts of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability

Rong Zhang (NOAA-GFDL, USA)

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21:30-22:00

Plenary talk 4: Cross-basin ocean-atmospheric interactions in the Anthropocene

Shang-Ping Xie (UC San Diego, USA)

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22:00-23:00

Poster Session 2

23:00-(00:30+1d)

Session 3: Discussion (Chairs: Chunzai Wang, Noel Keenlyside, Ping Chang, Andrea Taschetto)

23:00-24:00

Breakout discussion:

WG1: Subseasonal-to-interannual time scales

1. Identify the gaps in our current understanding.
2. To what extent do GCM biases contribute to uncertainties and hamper progress?
3. How can we disentangle causality issues (e.g. Atlantic zonal mode (AZM) causes ENSO vs. ENSO causes AZM vs. both co-evolve)?
4. Do we have a solid understanding of the importance of interbasin connections to seasonal prediction?
5. How could new observations (or utilization of existing observations) help us deepen our understanding?​

WG2: Past Climates

1. What are the major limitations of our understanding of past climates?
2. What new numerical experiments could be designed to close knowledge gaps?
3. What additional data would be most helpful in closing knowledge gaps?

WG3: Decadal time scales

1. To what extent does the relatively short observation period hamper progress?
2. What are the longest periods of reliable observations for individual variables and can we extend records further back?
3. How can we best use climate models for mechanistic understanding of decadal variability while we do not have sufficient observational data to test the realism of decadal variability in these models?
4. What is the role of decadal variability in modulating TBI?

WG4: Climate change

1. What is our current understanding and what are the major uncertainties?
2. Are there any suggestions for potential major shifts in basin interaction?
3. How does basin interaction affect changes in mean climate and variability and how can we disentangle the causality?
4. Do we understand how GCM biases may influence the projected changes in basin interaction?

24:00- (00:30+1d)

Plenary Session

Time (UTC)

Topic

Presenter

Abstract/Recording

14:00-16:00 

Session 1 (Chairs: Eletheria Exarchou; Marta Martin-Rey)

14:00-14:30

Plenary talk 5: Deep learning for the ENSO forecasts

Yoo-Geun Ham (Chonnam University, South Korea)

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14:30-15:00

Plenary talk 6: A Panoply of Flux Intervention Experiment to Understand Tropical Ocean Basin Interactions

Ben Kirtman (University of Miami; USA)

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15:00-16:00

Poster Session 3

16:00-21:00

Break

21:00-23:00

Session 2 (Chairs: Belen Rodriguez; Fred Kucharski)

21:00-21:30

Plenary talk 7: Interactions among the tropical basins: Conceptual models and theory

Dietmar Dommenget (Monash University, Australia)

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21:30-22:00

Plenary talk 8: Paleoclimate perspectives on the Indian Ocean Dipole

Nerilie Abram (Australian National University, Australia)

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22:00-23:00

Poster session 4

23:00-(0:30+1d) 

Session 3 (Chairs: Malte Stuecker, Xichen Li, Yuko Okumura, Regina Rodrigues)

23:00-24:00

Breakout discussion: 

WG1: Statistical methods (including machine learning)

1. Can we address the directionality of basin interactions using statistical methods?
2. Can we use statistical methods to identify pathways of basin interaction from observations and GCM experiments?
3. Can statistical methods help extend or augment existing data sets?
4. In the context of TBI, what techniques can help to separate signals and high-frequency internal variability?

WG2: GCM experiments

1. What are the major shortcomings of GCM experiments that have been used so far?
2. How can we minimize the inconsistencies introduced by sensitivity experiments (e.g. infinite heat source due to prescribed SSTs etc.)?
3. How can we better understand the impact of GCM biases on model results?
4. How can we better understand the potential benefit of basin interaction for prediction at subseasonal and longer time scales?
5. Would studies benefit from higher resolution? What are the current computational limitations on resolution?

WG3: Conceptual models and theory

1. Which advantages over GCMs do conceptual models offer? Which prognostic and diagnostic variables can they include?
2. What sensitivity experiments could be designed with conceptual models?
3. Can theoretical arguments be used to quantify the impacts of remote influences (e.g energetics perspective)?
4. Can theory help us to better understand the mechanisms of basin interaction (e.g. seasonality of remote impacts)?
5. How do we test for causality in observed and simulated basin interactions?

WG4: Paleo proxies

1. What data is available? What timescales can be resolved? Is there any untapped potential?
2. Is there a need to raise awareness of available data in the community?
3. How can we use palo proxies to improve our understanding of basin interaction given their uncertainty in recording climate signals?
4. How can we best use limited funding/resources to obtain new proxies?

24:00-(00:30+1d)

Plenary Session

Time (UTC)

Working Group & Topic

Chairs

14:00-16:00

WG1: GCM experiments

GCM experiment design for a TBI intercomparison project

Ping Chang

WG2: Theoretical approaches and intermediate complexity models

How to leverage conceptual and intermediate complexity models to investigate TBI

Fred Kucharski

WG3: Observations

Observational analyses to perform and observational requirements to monitor TBI

Roxy Mathew Koll

WG4: Paleo data

Creation of an archive of paleo data to be used in the analysis of TBI

Belen Rodriguez

16:00-16:30

Break

16:30-17:30

Plenary (Time slot 1)

Noel Keenlyside

17:30 – 21:00

Break

21:00 – 23:00

WG1: GCM experiments

GCM experiment design for a TBI intercomparison project

Ingo Richter

WG2: Theoretical approaches and intermediate complexity models

How to leverage conceptual and intermediate complexity models to investigate TBI

Malte Stuecker

WG3: Observations

Observational analyses to perform and observational requirements to monitor TBI

Michael McPhaden

WG4: Paleo data

Creation of an archive of paleo data to be used in the analysis of TBI

Julien Emile-Geay

23:00-23:30

Break

23:30-(00:30+1d)

Plenary (Time slot 2)

Ingo Richter