CLIVAR VAMOS Workshop on Modeling and Predicting Climate in the Americas

Monday, June 4, 2012 to Wednesday, June 6, 2012
Event City: 
Event Attendance: 
Event Description: 

Petropolis, Brazil


Monday, 4 June, 2012 - Wednesday, 6 June, 2012



Venue: Laboratorio Nacional de Computação Cientifica (LNCC)


The overarching goal of VAMOS modeling is to improve the prediction of warm season precipitation over the Americas, for societal benefit, and to assess the implications of climate change.  Success in meeting this overarching goal is critical to the new World Climate Research Program (WCRP) strategic framework. In meeting this goal, the VAMOS program works:

  1. To describe, understand, and simulate the mean and seasonal aspects of the American monsoon systems,
  2. To simulate American Monsoon System lifecycles, including diurnal cycles and the  intraseasonal, interannual and interdecadal  interactions with, and influences on, them,
  3. To investigate American Monsoon System predictability and to make predictions to the extent possible,
  4. To improve the predictive capability through model development and analysis techniques, and
  5. To prepare products with a view to meeting societal needs, including studies of the impacts on the American Monsoon Systems of scenarios of climate change.

To achieve its objectives, VAMOS has adopted a multi-scale approach, which includes monitoring, diagnostic and modeling activities on local, regional, and continental scales. In this multi-scale approach, local processes are embedded in, and are fully coupled with, larger-scale dynamics.

The modeling strategy which was approved in 2009 is organized into four science themes: (A) simulating, understanding and predicting the diurnal cycle, (B) predicting and describing the Pan-American monsoon onset, maturation and demise stages, (C) modeling and predicting SST variability in the Pan-American Seas, and (D) improving the prediction of droughts and floods. It is clear that all four of these science themes are interdependent; indeed, some of the scientific questions such as issues related to scale interactions transcend all four themes. Nevertheless, this organizational structure provides the focus required to tackle the most important modeling issues. 

The VAMOS panel is pleased to announce the CLIVAR VAMOS Workshop on Modeling and Predicting Climate in the Americas to be held at the Laboratorio Nacional de Computação Cientifica (LNCC) in Petropolis, Brazil, on June 4-6 2012.


Goals of the workshop

The main goals of this workshop are to review the state of modeling research in the VAMOS domain related to: (i) sub-seasonal to multi-decadal climate prediction and (ii) understanding of dynamical and physical processes underpinning potential sources of predictability, variability and climate change. In order to advance prediction at all of these time-scales it is essential to develop, use and understand models that integrate all relevant physical and dynamical processes. This integrative approach is a core element of the Modeling Plan for VAMOS as it seeks to improve the prediction of warm season precipitation over the Americas, for societal benefit, and to assess the implications of climate change.


Workshop Themes

The workshop will be organized following the Modeling Plan for VAMOS. That is the workshop will have core themes: 

a)    Simulating, Understanding and Predicting the Diurnal Cycle

b)    Predicting the Pan-American Monsoon Onset, Mature and Demise Stages

c)    Modeling and Predicting SST Variability in the Pan-American Seas

d)    Improving the Prediction of Droughts and Floods

While these core themes are focused on the VAMOS region, special emphasis will be placed on assessing how these aspects of the Pan-American monsoon are represented in global models. The workshop will also emphasize understanding and predicting extreme events in the VAMOS region, and how the VAMOS research contributes to climate change assessments.

In addition to reviewing the current state of modeling research, the workshop will have talks and discussion sessions specifically designed to develop the future of VAMOS modeling research as a fundamental contribution to the WCRP. 

Abstracts should be prepared using the following template and submitted to Carlos Ereño ( by  April 15, 2012



Logistic information

Meeting Location: 

The meeting will be held at the Laboratorio Nacional de Computação Cientifica (LNCC) in Petropolis, Brazil: 

Av. Getúlio Vargas, 333
Quitandinha, Petrópolis
CEP: 25651-075
Tel. (24) 2233-6000  
Fax. (24) 2231-5595

See the map. Highlighted is a commonly used route from Casa do Sol Hotel (A) to the meeting place at LNCC (B)

You can get more information about Petropolis at:



A block of rooms has been reserved for the period of June 4-8, 2012 at the Hotel Casa do Sol, located very close to LNCC, See the map

Av. Ayrton Senna, 115
Quintadinha – Rio de Janeiro
Tel/Fax:  + 24 2244 4500


Room rates:


- Single standard - R$164,00
- Single deluxe - R$175,00

- Double standard - R$197,00
- Double deluxe - R$208,00


The Brazilian Real (R$) is the currency in Brazil (BR, BRA).

You can check the exchange rate conversion at

For reservations meeting attendees can call (24) 2244 – 4500, or email: Let the reservations agent know that you are reserving a room for the VAMOS meeting in June 2012.


We recommend participants to make their reservations as soon as possible. 


Transportation from the airport

There are plans for providing transportation from Galeão International Airport, Rio de Janeiro to LNCC, Petropolis, around 50 minutes ride. Meeting attendees who want to use this service should inform their flight arrival and departure time to Mrs. Tathiana Tapajóz Figueiredo cc to Carlos Ereño


Last update: June 2, 2012



Monday June 4, 2012Friday - Afternoon
1.30-5.10 pm    
1:30-1:50 pm Welcome Remarks, Logistics  Carlos Ereño, Pedro Silva Dias,  Dave Gochis
1:50-2:20 pm Discussion on the Goals of the Workshop Ben Kirtman
2:20-2:40 pm The Brasilean National Laboratory of Scientific Computing Pedro Silva Dias
  Session (I): Simulating, Understanding and Predicting the Diurnal Cycle  
2:40-3:00 pm Simulation of the diurnal cycle of precipitation over Western Amazon by CPTEC climate AGCM Silvio Nilo Figueroa
3:00-3:30 pm Coffe Break  
3:30-5:10 pm Session (II): Predicting the Pan-American Monsoon Onset, Mature and Demise Stages  Chair: Iracema Cavalcanti
3:30-3:50 pm Regional Climate Simulations of the onset and demise of the pre-wet season and wet season of Northern Northeast Brazil Francisco das Chagas Vasconcelos Júnior
3:50-4:10 pm  Effects of biomass burning emissions on the raining season of the South America Monsoon Otacilio Leandro de Menezes Neto
4:10-4:40 pm Asian cause of the central America region midsummer drought signa Brian Mapes
4:40-5:10 pm Performance of the US NMME in Pan-American Seas Ben Kirtman
5:10 pm Break for the day  
Tuesday June 5, 2012 - Morning 
9.00-11.50 am Session (III): Modeling and Predicting SST Variability in the Pan-American Seas  Dave Gochis
9:00-9:20 am Advances in South America seasonal precipitation predictions Caio Coelho, Invited
9:20-9:40 am Multi-model calibration and combination of seasonal sea surface temperature forecasts over two different tropical regions Luis Ricardo Lage Rodrigues
9:40-10:10 am Determine the Sea Surface Temperature in the Eastern Tropical Oceans? –Announcing a new US CLIVAR Working Group Paquita Zuidema
10:10-10:30 am Predicting SST variability over the Tropical Atlantic Ocean with coupled ocean-atmosphere models Leo Siqueira, Paulo Nobre
10.30-10.50 am Coffee Break  
10:50-11:10 am IASCLIP Art Douglas presented by Dave Gochis
11:10 am-3:40 pm Session (IV): Improving the Prediction of Droughts and Floods  Marcelo Barreiro
11:10-11:30 am Seasonal cycle shifts in the Amazon hydroclimatology associated with the land cover change Santiago Vianna Cuadra
11:30-11:50 am Surface and aerosol effects on rainfall predictabilty in the Amazon Basin Maria Assunção Silva Dias, invited
11:50-12:10 pm A primitive equations model study of the effect of heat sources over tropical South America and Atlantic Ana Carolina Nóbile Tomaziello
12:10-12:30 pm Dynamical downscaling simulations of Current Climate over the Tropical Americas: Regional Model Validation and Historical Run Domingo Cassain Sales
12:30-12:50 pm Onset and Demise of the South American Monsoon in Two Simulations of RegCM3 Michelle Reboita
12:50-2:00 pm Lunch Break  
Tuesday June 5, 2012 - Afternoon 
2:00-2:20 pm Climate Simulations and Projections of Precipitation over South America and teleconnections in the Southern Hemisphere Iracema Fonseca Albuquerque Cavalcanti
2:20-2:40 pm Climate Change Simulations over the Tropical Americas Using a Regional Model: Temperature and Precipitation Changes under the RCP8.5 Scenario Alexandre Araujo Costa
2:40-3:00 pm Study of Mesoscale Convective Vortices associated with South Atlantic Convergence Mário Francisco Leal de Quadro
3:00-3:20 pm El Niño and La Niña impacts on American seasonal weather anomalies: the OLR perspective Andrew Chiodi
3:20-3:40 pm Using data assimilation to improve climate models: model error and parameter estimation Manuel Pulido
3.40-4:00 pm Coffee Break  
4:00-5:30 pm Poster Session  
5.30 pm Break for the day  
Wednesday June 6, 2012 - Morning
9:00 - 12:40 pm Session (IV): Improving the Prediction of Droughts and Floods (Continued) Maisa Rojas
9:00-9:20 am About SACZ simulations in present and future climate by global climate models Carolina Vera, invited
9:20-9:40 am CARICOF Probabilistic Rainfall Outlook April-May-June Cecilia Viloria Holguin
9:40-10:00 am Assessment of precipitation climate forecasting of models ECHAM 4.5, CFS, COLA/IRI and CCM3 for hydrographic basins in Southwest Brazil Marcio Cataldi
10:00-10:20 am Application of a multivariate autoregressive model to generate inflow scenarios using ensemble climate forecast William Cossich
10.20-10.40 am Coffee Break  
10:40-11:00 am Role of the global oceans and land-atmosphere interaction on summertime interdecadal variability over Southeastern South America Marcelo Barreiro
11:00-11:20 am On the ability of CMIP3 and CMIP5 models in representing Caribbean current climate Sullyandro Oliveira Guimarães
11:20-11:40 am Multiscale interaction in the atmosphere, atmosphere-ocean and slow climate variability Pedro Silva Dias
11:40-12:00 pm Assessing the role of land surface hydrology in the development of terrain-induced convection within the North American Monsoon Dave Gochis

12:00-12:20 pm

Interaction of convective parameterization and horizontal resolution in simulating precipitation over the CORDEX Central America domain Ray Arritt
12:20-12:40 pm VOCALS Modeling Rob Wood
12:40-2:00 pm Lunch Break  
Wednesday June 6, 2012 - Afternoon
2:00-5:30 pm Group Discussion on Future of VAMOS Modeling  Ben Kirtman  to lead discussion
5:30 pm End of VAMOS Modeling Workshop  


Attachment Size
VAMOS_abstract_form.doc 22 KB