IV International Conference on El Niño Southern Oscillation: ENSO in a warmer Climate

Tuesday, October 16, 2018 to Thursday, October 18, 2018
Event City: 
Guayaquil
Ecuador
Event Contact: 
Jose Santos
Event Description: 

 

Selected Power Point Presentations avaliable (New)

 

Conference Handbook 

Abstract book 

Transportation information

Poster Guidelines

Conference Report (new!)

 

The global impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation events (ENSO) highlights the need to address ENSO scientific challenges in the context of international climate research, assessments, and operational prediction efforts.  We should also point out that the highest socio-economic impact during strong ENSO events have been traditionally reported in Latin America, Africa and Asia, in developing countries that do not have enough resources to cope to the presence of this extreme events. Given the current progress, uncertainties, and ensuing greenhouse warming, it is timely to ask - what is the current state of understanding of ENSO in terms of its diverse behavior, extremity, impacts, and teleconnections?

As a catalyzing activity in the process to better understand ENSO and its impacts, CLIVAR and CIIFEN are organizing the IV International Conference on El Niño Southern Oscillation: ENSO in a Warmer Climate (ENSO2018). This conference is a follow-on to the III International Conference on ENSO: “Bridging the gaps between Global ENSO Science and regional processes, extremes and impacts” held in November 2014; the Second International “Workshop on ENSO, Decadal Variability and Climate Change in South America: Trends, teleconnections and potential impacts” held in October 2010; and the First International ENSO Conference: “The El Niño phenomenon and its global impact” in May 2005, All held in Guayaquil, Ecuador.

The main goal of the Conference is to review progress on the science of ENSO.  This will include a focus on examining the range of ENSO “flavors,” (especially regarding longitudinal variations of ENSO sea surface warming), assessing precursors to the different flavors, and examining how the different oceanic and atmospheric processes that drive ENSO flavors and impact their predictability may change in a warming world. There are 6 sessions 

  1. ENSO observations,  including analysis of recent events
  2. ENSO dynamics
  3. ENSO and other modes of climate variability (intraseasonal, decadal, centennial)
  4. ENSO modeling and prediction
  5. ENSO impacts and Regional processes
  6. Climate information and sustainable development, and the future of climate and ocean science

Conference website: http://www.ensoconference2018.org

Abstract submision

Abstract submission was closed by 31 May 2018.

After a rigorous selection process the Scientific Committee of ENSO2018 have selected 210 abstracts to be presented during the 3-day event (42 keynote and oral presentations and 168 posters), coming from 36 countries around the world: 

 

Registration

Registration is now open through http://www.ensoconference2018.org/enso_registration.html

Registration for the conference is mandatory for all participants. The Conference venue can host a maximum of 300 participants. In order to avoid disappointment, the Organising Committee strongly encourages early registration.

Programme (Download the conference programme)

Daily Programme 

Day 1: Tuesday, October 16

8:30- 9:00

Registration

9:00- 10:00

Opening Ceremony 30 min

|Inaugural Keynote 30 min

ENSO science and predictions and the UN Decade of Ocean Science. Salvatore Arico. IOC

10:00- 10:30

Coffee Break

10:30- 12:30

Oral Session

Session 1(a): ENSO Observations

Chairs: Wenju Cai, Matthieu Lengaigne

  • Michael McPhaden: The 2015-16 El Niño and Climate Change (Keynote, 30 min)
  • Kim Cobb: Advances in paleo-ENSO: A past to future perspective (Keynote, 30 min)
  • Magdalena Balmaseda: ENSO complexity: A monitoring and forecasting perspective (20 min)
  • Shineng Hu: El Niño diversity, cross-equatorial winds, and the intertropical convergence zone (20 min)
  • Julia Cole: ENSO variability in Galápagos corals: New insights on variability and trends (20 min)

12:30- 13:30

Lunch.  Climate Services Stage

13:30- 14:10

Oral Session

Session 1(b): ENSO Observations

Chairs: Wenju Cai, Matthieu Lengaigne

  • Gandy Rosales: Impacts of the Pacific Equatorial Undercurrent on the Northern Peruvian Coast  (20 min)
  • Scott Power: The impact of global warming on ENSO is clearer now than ever before (20 min)

14:10- 14:30

Poster Express

Session 1

14:30- 15:30

Oral Session

Session 2(a): ENSO Dynamics

Chairs: Andrew Wittenberg, Kim Cobb

  • Ken Takahashi: El Niño in the far-eastern Pacific: Concepts, impacts and dynamics (Keynote, 30 min)
  • Shayne McGregor: Understanding ENSO event precursors (Keynote, 30 min)

15:30- 16:00

Coffee Break

16:00-17:40

Oral Session

Session 2(b): ENSO Dynamics

Chairs: Andrew Wittenberg, Kim Cobb

  • Christina Karamperidou: A hierarchy of models for ENSO diversity in past, present and future (20 min)
  • Sulian Thual: A stochastic skeleton model for the MJO and ENSO (20 min)
  • S.A. Dixit: Decrypting the nonlinearity in ENSO observations, potential for skillful predictions (20 min)
  • Ruihuang Xie: ENSO modes-annual cycle interaction and ENSO complexity (20 min)
  • Petrova Desislava: The Role of the Western Pacific Heat Buildup in the Development and Prediction of El Niño (20 min)

17:40- 18:00

Poster Express. Session 2

18:00

Adjourn

 

Day2: Wednesday, October 17

9:00- 10:00

Oral Session

Session 3(a): ENSO and Modes of Climate Variability

Chairs: Michael McPhaden, Ken Takahashi

10:00- 10:30

Coffee Break

10:30- 12:10

Oral Session

Session 3(b): ENSO and Modes of Climate Variability

Chairs: Michael McPhaden, Ken Takahashi

  • Samantha Stevenson: Extreme El Nino events and 21st century climate change: Attributing inter-model differences in future projections (20 min)
  • Yuko Okumura: Decadal modulation of ENSO and the linkage to tropical Pacific decadal variability (20 min)
  • Aaron Levine: Atlantic Impacts on Multi-decadal ENSO diversity and Amplitude Variability (20 min)
  • Gerald Meehl: The role of interannual ENSO events in decadal timescale transitions of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (20 min)
  • Anika Arora: Effect of increasing atmospheric resolution on prediction skill of ENSO in coupled forecast system (CFS). (20 min)

12:10- 12:30

Poster Express

Session 3

12:30- 13:30

Lunch. Climate Services Stage

13:30- 14:30

Poster viewing (Sessions 1, 2, 3)

14:30- 15:30

Oral Session

Session 4 (a): ENSO Modelling and Prediction

Chairs: Antonieta Capotondi, Jose Santos

  • Andrew Wittenberg: ENSO in climate models: Progress and opportunities (Keynote, 30 min)
  • Eric Guilyardi: Consensus climate model evaluation for end users: an example with ENSO metrics (Keynote, 30 min)

15:30- 16:00

Coffee Break

16:00- 17:40

Oral Session

Session 4 (b): ENSO Modelling and Prediction

Chairs: Antonieta Capotondi, Jose Santos

  • Michelle L'Heureux: A Bird's Eye View of Operational ENSO Prediction:  Methods, Challenges, and Paths Forward (20 min)
  • Sarah Larson: Does the equatorial recharge/discharge increase ENSO predictability? (20 min)
  • John Mejia: Improved skill in North American multi-model ensemble for the Americas (20 min)
  • Matthew Newman: Characterizing tropical Pacific SST predictability (20 min)
  • Tobias Bayr Tobias: Tuning ENSO in a Climate Model (20 min)

17:40- 18:00

Poster Express

Session 4

18:00

Adjourn

 

Day 3: Thursday, October 18

9:00-  10:00

Oral Session

Session 5(a): ENSO impacts and Regional process

Chairs: Chairs: Eric Guilyardi, Rodney Martinez

  • Boris Dewitte: Air-sea interactions off Peru and Ecuador and the development of Eastern Pacific El Nino events (Keynote, 30 min)
  • Bor-Ting Jong: ENSO teleconnections and impacts on North America during la Niña summers (Keynote, 30 min)

10:00- 10:30

Coffee Break

10:30- 12:10

Oral Session

Session 5(b): ENSO impacts and Regional process

Chairs: Eric Guilyardi, Rodney Martinez

  • Victor Aguilera: Oceanography, total alkalinity and pCO2 levels during El Niño 2015-16 in a subtropical coastal upwelling area of Humboldt Current (20 min)
  • Anderson Weston: How relevant is ENSO to global crop production? (20 min)
  • Boyin Huang: The role of buoy and Argo observations in ENSO in two SST analyses (20 min)
  • Eleftheria Exarchou: Impact of Tropical Atlantic variability on Tropical Pacific predictability (20 min)
  • Juan Sulca: Impacts of different ENSO flavors and tropical Pacific convection variability (ITCZ, SPCZ) on austral summer rainfall in South America, with a focus on Peru (20 min)

12:10- 12:30

Poster Express

Session 5

12:30- 13:30

Lunch. Climate Services Stage

13:30- 14:30

Poster viewing (Sessions 4,5,6)

14:30- 15:30

Oral Session

Session 6(a): Climate information and sustainable development

Chairs:Boris Dewitte, Fangli Qiao

  • Rodney Martinez: Keeping climate science fundable: Challenges and opportunities of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (Keynote, 30 min)
  • Jose Santos: Towards an ENSO Early Warning System in Ecuador: Lessons learned (Keynote, 30 min)

15:30- 16:00

Coffee Break

16:00- 17:40

Oral Session

Session 6(b): Climate information and sustainable development

  • Chairs:Boris Dewitte, Fangli Qiao
  • Luis Icochea Salas: Differences between ENSO 2014-2017 and another strong ENSO events (20 min)
  • Khalid Bushra: Impacts of ENSO and summer monsoon rainfall on riverine flooding in Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan (20 min)
  • Mercy Borbor-Cordova: Climate Services for Public Health: the use of El Niño and other climate modes for arbovirus forecasting in Latin America and the Caribbean (20 min)
  • Caballero Espejo Maria Esther: Climate System Interactions for Climate Risks Management in Developing Countries (20 min)
  • Fangli Qiao: Ocean and climate models improvements by including the surface wave (20 min)

17:40- 18:00

Poster Express

Session 6

18:00- 18:20

Closure & Poster awards

18:20

Adjourn

 

Poster

Download the Poster Guidelines 

 

Sponsorship Opportunities for IV International ENSO Conference

The Organising Committee of the IV International ENSO Conference encourage you to be a sponsor to the conference. There are several categories for the sponsorship opportunities. Please check below for more details. If you are interested to become a sponsor, please contact: enso2018@clivar.org 

  • Platinum Sponsor – US $12,000
  • Gold Sponsor – US $8,000
  • Silver Sponsor – US $4,000

Additional Sponsorship Opportunities

  • Video & Webstreaming Sponsor – US $10,000 (1 opportunity)
  • Best Poster Awards  – US $5,000

For more information about the sponsorship opportunity, please visit: http://www.clivar.org/news/sponsorship-opportunities-iv-international-enso-conference