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CLIVAR Research Opportunities
-- Intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual variability and predictability of monsoon systems --
-- Decadal variability and predictability of ocean and climate variability --
-- Trends, nonlinearities and extreme events --
-- Marine biophysical interactions and dynamics of upwelling systems --
-- Dynamics of regional sea level variability --
-- Consistency between planetary heat balance and ocean heat storage --
-- ENSO in a changing climate --
Intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual variability and predictability of monsoon systems
Monsoon systems are a major mode of seasonal climate variability driven by variations in temperature between the land and the ocean, determining the wet and dry seasons for much of the tropics. Ocean atmosphere coupling (e.g. El Nino / La Nina events) and associated variations in sea surface temperature affects the occurrence of monsoon systems.
Monsoonal variability, from complete failure, to greater than average rainfall, over seasonal and inter-annual timescales, can have profound impacts on food security, water supplies and national economics. Consequently, it is important to accurately simulate and predict monsoonal system dynamics.
Major research themes
- Better constraint of modelled monsoon variability and change based on observation-informed process studies;
- Improving models to better represent the key processes involved in monsoon intraseasonal and inter-annual variability, including El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole;
- Extending efforts to improve predictions of monsoon variability and change using land surface modelling and incorporation of land surface initialisation;
- Improving the physical understanding of monsoon decadal variability in the context of natural variations and anthropogenic change.
The CLIVAR research themes are not exhaustive, thus are not limited to the subjects detailed here.
More information
Please refer to the tiger team report on the intraseasonal, seasonal and interannual variability and predictability of monsoon systems for more detailed information. Please note that this is an evolving document and is subject to updates and revisions. Any comments should be directed to Andy Turner (a.g.turner@reading.ac.uk).
Decadal variability and predictability of ocean and climate variability
There is a need to better understand decadal natural variability in the ocean and climate system and to explore the predictability of decadal changes and their interaction with the long-term climate change. This is increasingly important, as it is the timescale over which developed societies base significant decisions upon.
Better understanding of decadal variability and its potential predictability can be achieved though improved understanding of the driving mechanisms, monitoring, observation and modeling studies of ocean-climate system variability.
Major research themes
- Improving the physical understanding of decadal variability and its predictability;
- Advancing the use of past instrumental and proxy data;
- Improving models to better represent key processes associated with decadal variability;
- Analysis of current prediction potential based on CMIP5 hindcasts and development of best practices for decadal prediction (based on dynamical and statistical methods);
- Developing critical evaluations of proposed geoengineering methods.
The CLIVAR research themes are not exhaustive, thus are not limited to the subjects detailed here.
More information
Please refer to the tiger team report on decadal variability and predictability of ocean climate variability for more detailed information. Please note that this is an evolving document and is subject to updates and revisions. Any comments should be directed to Anna Pirani (annran@noc.soton.ac.uk).
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Trends, nonlinearities and extreme events
In recent years, the occurrence of extreme events, and the associated damage caused to human and natural systems, has increased. Extreme events can be wide ranging in nature, from heat waves and droughts, to flooding and storm surges.
Natural climatic variations such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation affect the frequency and intensity of extreme events on seasonal to interannual timescales. Furthermore, anthropogenic climate change has been related to changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events.
Major research themes
- Identification of the key modes of ocean-atmosphere variability, impacting the magnitude and frequency extreme events, both now and in the future;
- Increasing observational data sets, providing higher temporal and spatial resolution for ocean-atmosphere processes;
- Model development, addressing observational based approaches, improving variability in ocean-atmosphere simulations relevant to extreme events;
- Investigating the physical mechanisms leading to changes in high impact (societally relevant) weather and climate extreme events.
The CLIVAR research themes are not exhaustive, thus are not limited to the subjects detailed here.
Please refer to the tiger team report on trends, nonlinearities and extreme events for more detailed information. Please note that this is an evolving document and is subject to updates and revisions. Any comments should be directed to Anna Pirani (annran@noc.soton.ac.uk).
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Marine biophysical interactions and dynamics of upwelling systems
Upwelling systems bring nutrient rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of upwelling are often associated with highly productive oceanic regions, offering great economic value in terms of fisheries. Regions of upwelling are located in equatorial (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone, ITCZ) and coastal (west coast Pacific and Atlantic) regions of the ocean.
Upwelling is driven by ocean surface winds. Consequently climatic events, causing shifts in prevailing winds (e.g. El Niño and Tropical Atlantic Variability) can cause variations and reduction in the strength of upwelling systems. Present models of upwelling systems show large biases, with implications for climate simulations.
Major research themes
- Identifying the key physical processes that are responsible for upwelling and improving their representation in models;
- Coupled interactions between the physical, biogeochemical and marine ecological systems;
- Identifying the cause of tropical bias in climate models;
- Understanding how upwelling systems will change in the future, including changes in the biology and biogeochemistry associated with upwelling.
The CLIVAR research themes are not exhaustive, thus are not limited to the subjects detailed here.
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Please refer to the Tiger Team report on marine biophysical interactions and dynamics of upwelling for more detailed information. Please note that this is an evolving document and is subject to updates and revisions. Any comments should be directed to Nico Caltabiano (antonio.caltabiano@noc.ac.uk).
Dynamics of regional sea level variability
Global sea level rise is forecast to increase by more than 50 cm by 2100. This will have significant impacts for coastal cities, which currently are home to 60 % of the global population. Accurate predictions of regional sea level change on decadal to centennial time scales are therefore required for impact, adaptation and vulnerability assessments, especially for the coastal communities and ecosystems.
Observations are key to our understanding of sea-level changes in the past and present, but models are essential to obtain best projections of change in the future. Understanding these changes in terms of underlying physical and dynamical processes is essential for providing science-based information about the regional sea level change.
Major research themes
- Contribution of wind-driven circulation change;
- Ocean – ice sheet interaction in Southern Ocean;
- Representation of gravitational attraction in climate models.
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Consistency between planetary heat balance and ocean heat storage
Improving the accuracy of our estimates of Earth’s climate state and variability is critical for advancing our understanding and prediction of the evolution of our climate. Determining exact values for energy flows in the Earth system is an area of ongoing climate research. There are independent measurement approaches based on remote sensing and in situ measurements and each approach has problems. While deriving budgets of the Earth’s Climate, errors involved in deriving the single components can accumulate and have major impacts on the accuracy of climate indicators, leading to large imbalances in estimates of global Earth’s climate budgets. There is merit in pursuing all methods, because confidence in the result will become high only when they agree or at least the reasons that they differ are understood. Reconciling the different approaches remains a challenge. Energy balance can also be estimated from climate models, which in turn require validation to provide confidence in their results. Only by using conservation and physical principles can we infer the likely resolution.
Major research themes
- Earth Observation Measurement Constraints on Ocean Heat Budget;
- In situ observations of ocean heat content changes;
- Ocean reanalysis for atmosphere-ocean heat exchange and ocean heat content estimate.
Please refer to the document of this new CLIVAR Research Opportunity for more detailed information. Please note that this is an evolving document and is subject to updates and revisions. Any comments should be directed to Nico Caltabiano (antonio.caltabiano@noc.ac.uk).
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ENSO in a changing climate
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is a naturally occurring fluctuation that originates in the tropical Pacific region and affects ecosystems, agriculture, freshwater supplies, hurricanes and other severe weather events worldwide. Despite considerable progress in our understanding of the impact of climate change on many of the processes that contribute to ENSO variability, it is not yet possible to say whether ENSO activity will be enhanced or damped, or if the frequency of character of events will change in the next decades. Over the past few years, new promising methods have emerged, which can improve ENSO simulations, for example by bridging ENSO theoretical frameworks and CGCM modeling. Not only can these new methods and research areas help address the question of whether the characteristics of ENSO are changing in a changing climate, but potentially they can also improve reliability of decadal and centennial-scale climate projections and predictions on seasonal time scales.
Major research themes
- Better understand the role of different physical processes that influence ENSO characteristics and the diversity of El Niño events on decadal time scales;
- Understand how ENSO characteristics might be modified in the next decades, namely under the influence of anthropogenic climate change;
- Propose a standard ENSO evaluation protocol for CGCMs.
Please refer to the document of this new CLIVAR Research Opportunity for more detailed information. Please note that this is an evolving document and is subject to updates and revisions. Any comments should be directed to Nico Caltabiano (antonio.caltabiano@noc.ac.uk).
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References
AFP/GETTY (2013) The first rains of the monsoon season fall in India, Telegraph Media Group Ltd
Joughlin, Last modified 29 November 2012, Disko Bay, Greenland. Accessed via NASA website.
