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WCRP Statement on Seasonal Prediction
The main objective of the Workshop is to enable the WCRP Task Force on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP) to make an assessment of current skill in seasonal prediction, with particular emphasis on surface temperature and precipitation. A WCRP statement of the present state-of-the-art of seasonal forecasting, together with a forward-looking road-map of recommendations for the seasonal forecasting community will be produced as an outcome of the Workshop.
A position paper will be available before the Workshop setting out the outline of the overall Workshop statement. This paper will form the basis of a WCRP Statement on Seasonal Prediction that will be produced as an outcome of the Workshop.
TFSP Experiment
The Workshop will be the showcase for presenting the Task Force on Seasonal Prediction (TFSP) Experiment, encouraging the modelling community to participate and applications experts to apply and validate the results, particularly in terms of regional skill.
The Experiment is proposed by the TFSP as a multi-model and multi-institutional experiment to determine the predictability of the complete climate system on seasonal timescales. Developments in Seasonal Prediction will continue to evolve so this Experiment will form the basis for consistent evaluation.
An overview of the TFSP Experiment is available to download here.
Three main Sessions will address the following overall Workshop Objectives:
1. To validate and assess the state-of-the-art and skill in seasonal forecasts using high quality retrospective forecast data issued from the SMIP/HFP and DEMETER Projects together with the latest results from the ENSEMBLES Project. Assessment in this Session is needed in terms of scientific quality aswell as in terms of the value for applications and society.
2. To address seasonal prediction from a wide-ranging multi-disciplinary perspective looking at the role of cryospheric processes, stratospheric processes and air-land interactions on seasonal prediction, as well as the role of ocean initialization. This Session will be co-organized by other WCRP Projects (SPARC, CliC and GEWEX).
3. To highlight issues important for interfacing seasonal forecasts with applications including calibration, downscaling and validation, looking at whether there is an emerging consensus on approach and methodology. The World Climate Programme, regional CLIVAR panels (VAMOS, VACS, AAMP) and the AMMA Project will be contributing to this Session.