ENSO Forecasts

 

This page provides links to ENSO forecasts that are available on the internet. ENSO forecasts are issued by several Climate Prediction Centers around the world using both dynamical and statistical models

Dynamical models:

CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies (NOMA AA-CPC)

El Nino Outlook (JMA)

POAMA Forecasts of NINO3 temperature (BOM)

POAMA Experimental Forecasts of Nino3 SST anomaly (BMRC)

SST anomaly forecasts for NINO 3, 3.4 and 4 areas (ECMWF)

Seasonal Forecasts (ECMWF)

Forecasts of SST in Nino regions (UKMO)

SST Anomaly forecasts in Nino regions (GMAO-NASA)

Experimental El Nino Forecast (SCRIPPS)

Seasonal Prediction SSTA Nino 3.4 (FRCGC)

Statistical Models

Probabilistic ENSO Forecast for NINO3.4 region (IRI)

Forecast SST Nino 3.4 with NCEP Markov Model (NCEP-NOAA)

SST Anomaly forecast (SSES)

ENSO Model Prediction (BCC)

Summaries and Assessments

El Nino/La Nina Updates (WMO)

Summary of ENSO Model Forecasts (IRI)

Summary of ENSO Model Forecasts (BOM)

ENSO Wrap-Up (BOM)

Climate Diagnostic Bulletin - Tropics (NOAA-CPC)

El Nino Theme Page (NOAA-PMEL)

Bulletins of Seasonal Forecasts for Western South America and Regional ENSO impacts along the Eastern Pacific (CIIFEN)

Real-time observations

Real-time data from moored ocean buoys TAO/TRITON (NOAA-PMEL)

Latest ENSO SSH data from Jason (JPL-NASA)

SST and SST anomaly data from AVHRR (JPL-NASA)

Real-time Multivariate MJO Index (BMRC)

Ocean Analysis

GODAS - Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (NOAA-NCEP)

Weekly Global SST anomaly (ECMWF)

 

SUBMIT YOUR ENSO FORECASTS

The CLIVAR Pacific panel has developed an ENSO expert prediction site. This website is designed to assess the current knowledge (and its uncertainty) on the evolution of ENSO several seasons in advance. ENSO experts are invited to submit their 3, 6, 9, and 12 month forecasts for the Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA). Some of the forecasts submitted will be based on dynamical or statistical modeling results, whereas others will reflect the physical understanding, experience and intuition of the ENSO experts. It is this blend of information that we hope will help to improve the forecasting horizon of ENSO.

The goals of this experimental website are:

1. to provide probabilistic seasonal ENSO forecasts from the ENSO community;
2. to assess whether a multi-expert-ensemble forecast can help to improve ENSO forecasting skill compared to conventional forecasting approaches;
3. to assess how well we understand the processes leading to the evolution of El Niño or La Niña events.

This website will be operated for two years in an experimental mode, without public access. Every year a statistical analysis and evaluation of the skill and performance will be made. The forecasting data will be released in the second year and the website will be made accessible to the general public.

For more information please contact:

Axel Timmermann
Associate Professor of Oceanography
IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawaii
2525 Correa Road
Honolulu, HI 96822, USA