WCRP Decadal Prediction

 

Publications

WCRP Publications

Decadal Prediction Cross Cut - Annual Progress Report for JSC29, 2008

Co-ordinated experiments to study multi-decadal prediction and near-term climate change. Version 2.0, December 2007

Cross-Cutting Topic: Decadal Prediction - Presented to JSC28, 2007

Decadal climate variability and the thermohaline circulation - Presented to CLIVAR SSG14, 2006

CLIVAR Publications

AMOC Implementation Plan: Assessing Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability: Implications for Rapid Climate Change
US CLIVAR AMOC Planning Team, 2007.

CLIVAR/GODAE Global Synthesis Evaluation Framework
T. Lee and D. Stammer, May, 2006, Version 3.1.

References

Hurrell, J. W., Bader D., Delworth, T., Kirtman, B., Meehl, J., H.L.Pan, and B. Wielicki: 2007.
White Paper on Seamless Prediction. Available here.

Hurrell, J. W., Delworth, T., Danabasoglu, G., Drange, H., Griffies, S., Holbrook, N., Kirtman, B., Keenlyside, N., Latif, M., Marotzke, J., Meehl, G. A., Palmer, T., Pohlmann, H., Rosati, T., Seager, R., Smith, D., Sutton, R., Timmermann, A., Trenberth, K. E., and J. Tribbia, 2010:
Decadal Climate Prediction: Opportunities and Challenges, in Proceedings of OceanObs'09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society (Vol. 2), Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, Hall, J., Harrison D.E. & Stammer, D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306.

Keenleyside, N. S., Latif, M., Jungclaus, J., Kornblueh, L., and E. Roeckner, 2008:
Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector, Nature, 453, 84-88, doi:10.1038/nature06921.

Latif, M., Delworrth, T., Dommenget, D., Drange, H., Hazeleger, W., Hurrell, J., Keenlyside, N., Meehl, G. A., and R. Sutton, 2010:
Dynamics of Decadal Climate Variability and Implications for its Prediction, in Proceedings of OceanObs'09: Sustained Ocean Observations and Information for Society (Vol. 2), Venice, Italy, 21-25 September 2009, Hall, J., Harrison D.E. & Stammer, D., Eds., ESA Publication WPP-306.

Meehl G. A., and K. A. Hibbard, 2007:
A strategy for climate change stabilization experiments with AOGCMs and ESMs. Aspen Global Change Institute 2006 Session. Earth System Models: The Next Generation (Aspen, Colorado, July 30-August 5, 2006. WCRP Informal Report No 3/2007; ICPO Publication No. 112; IGBP Report No. 57.

Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, J. Murphy, R. J. Stouffer, G. Boer, G. Danabasoglu, K. Dixon, M. A. Giorgetta, A. Greene, E. Hawkins, G. Hegerl, D. Karoly, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, A. Navarra, R. Pulwarty, D. Smith, D. Stammer, and T. Stockdale, 2009:
Decadal prediction: Can it be skillful? Bull. Amer. Meteorol. Soc., DOI: 10.1175/2009BAMS2778.1.

Murphy, J., Kattsov, V., Keenlyside, N., Kimoto, M., Meehl, M., Mehta, V., Pohlmann, H., Scaife, A., and D. Smith, 2009:
Towards Prediction of Decadal Climate Variability and Change, WCC-3 Decadal Climate Variability Session White Paper.

Palmer et al, 2008:
Calibration of probabilistic climate-change projections of precipitation using seasonal reforecasts. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc, to appear.

Pohlmann, H., J. Jungclaus, A. Koehl, D. Stammer, and J. Marotzke, 2008:
Improving climate predictability through the initialization of a coupled model with the GECCO oceanic synthesis. Journal of Climate, in preparation.

Reason, C.J.C., W. Landman, W. Tennant, 2006:
Seasonal to decadal prediction of southern African climate and its links with variability of the Atlantic Ocean, Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 87, 941-955.

Smith, D. M., S. Cusack, A. W. Colman, C. K. Folland, G. R. Harris, and J. M. Murphy, 2007:
Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model. Science, 317, 796-799.

Troccoli, A., and T. N. Palmer, 2007:
Ensemble decadal predictions from analysed initial conditions. Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. A-Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, 365, 2179-2191.

last updated Fri, Jan 22, 2010 by Anna Pirani