A two day meeting of the AA-monsoon panel was held April 20-21, 1998 in Kyongju City, S. Korea. The panel meeting was followed by the International Symposium on Hydrologic Cycle and the Monsoon (April 23-25), which was sponsored jointly by the Korean Meteorological Society and the American Meteorological Society. During the meeting, panel members and invited experts discussed current scientific issues related to the AA-monsoon. Representatives from different monsoon countries presented their national monsoon research plan. In particular, the panel discussed the observed anomalies and forecast of the 1997-98 AA-monsoon.

General recommendation

It is felt that communication between the CLIVAR SSG and its panels need to be strengthened. Panel chairs and co-chairs need to be informed of actions and decisions by the CLIVAR SSG. They need to be informed and invited to meetings of CLIVAR SSG. It is desirable to have representative from CLIVAR SSG and/or staff from CLIVAR Project Office to be present at Panel meetings.

Meeting summary and recommendation

1."Opening" of Indonesian Seas for Research, by President of Indonesia

The CLIVAR Monsoon Panel was asked by Dr. Arnold Gordon to host a Working Group to develop a co-ordinated program of oceanographic and meteorological research and monitoring, to take advantage of the opportunity offered by the "opening" of Indonesian Seas for Research, by the President of Indonesia. The Panel agreed that this was a significant development for monsoon science, and that CLIVAR should take strong action to capitalize on this opportunity.

The Panel strongly recommended that the CLIVAR SSG should write to the President of Indonesia, thanking him for his initiative and advising him of possible future action by CLIVAR. However, the Panel felt that it might not be possible to develop a mature scientific plan for Indonesian research and monitoring, on the timescale needed if it was to be included in the letter to the President. Furthermore, they felt that this initiative would be of interest to all Panels, not just the AA-monsoon Panel.

The Monsoon Panel therefore suggested that the CLIVAR SSG should instruct all CLIVAR Panels to consider possible amendments to their Implementation Plans in the light of this initiative from the President of Indonesia; and that the President should be told of this action in the letter from the SSG. Consideration of all these amendments might be made the subject of a future conference.

2. JASMINE

Professor. P. Webster proposed JASMINE (Joint Air-Sea Monsoon Interaction Experiment) - a program of modeling and data analysis of the Asian-Australasian monsoon system, built around an Indian Ocean field project. Plans for a pilot phase of JASMINE, to be conducted in the Bay of Bengal in May-September 1999, are well advanced. The primary aims of JASMINE are:

• To determine the dynamic and thermodynamic structure of the intraseasonal variations of the monsoon system
• To assess the variability of the SST relative to the migrations or oscillations of the intraseasonal variability of the monsoon system
• To measure ocean-atmosphere interactions during intraseasonal transitions including variations of the surface energy budget, and the manner in which these are manifested in the thermodynamic structure through the atmospheric and oceanic columns.

To determine the degree of predictability of the intraseasonal variability and its extension to larger space and time scales.

Proposals for the oceanographic phase of the JASMINE Pilot Project have been submitted, which will use ship time on R/V "Ron Brown" in April 1999 and R/V "Franklin" in September 1999; they call for installation of IMET moorings at (10^oN, 90^oE) and at (5^oS, 95^oE) in the Bay of Bengal, with oceanographic surveys to close heat and freshwater budgets and to investigate the basic oceanography of this little-known region. Proposals for the meteorological component of the Pilot Project, involving radar measurement of monsoon rain and shipboard flux measurements, are near completion. First steps towards planning a more ambitious initiative, involving more extensive fieldwork and associated modeling efforts, will be undertaken as part of a U.S. Monsoon workshop in July 1998.
It is hoped that a more extensive, international workshop devoted to JASMINE can be convened in 1999.

The Panel commended Dr. Webster for his initiative to organize JASMINE, which will observe important monsoon ocean-atmosphere phenomena in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean, south of the Bay of Bengal. JASMINE is an opportunity to involve scientists in the AA-monsoon regions and, very importantly, it represents an exciting opportunity to obtain a suite of accurate observations in this data-sparse region, that should lead to improved understanding of surface heat fluxes and of the mechanisms controlling SST and lower-tropospheric moisture on intraseasonal timescales. The Panel strongly endorsed the 1999 JASMINE Pilot Project and encouraged all interested individuals and science agencies to contribute to the success of this project.

3. AA-monsoon anomalies during the 1997-1998 ENSO 

During 1997-98 anomalies in the AA-monsoon region varied greatly, some resembling past ENSO patterns, some did not.  One unusual feature of 1997 was that, for the first time since 1961, (which was not an El Niño year), the SST off equatorial east Africa was substantially warmer than off Sumatra for several consecutive months. As in 1961, this SST pattern was accompanied by very heavy anomalous rain near east Africa, in October-November; and by drought over Indonesia. In short, the observations suggested a La Niña-like behavior of the Indian Ocean, coincident with the main El Niño over the Pacific. Unlike in most El Niño years, Indonesian monsoon onset was delayed substantially over the entire region. In 1997-98 the Indian monsoon as a whole was near normal, however, the East Asian monsoon was highly abnormal with excessive rainfall in the south and record drought in N. China. The Australian monsoon was near normal. Intraseasonal activities were unusually active throughout the AA-monsoon region. It is possible that remote forcing ENSO signals such as SST effects were swamped by the strong intraseasonal variability  (See Appendix A for more detailed discussions)

4. Modeling initiatives

During the deliberation, it became clear that the priority problems of monsoon AGCM modeling are:

• Most AGCMS still have significant systematic errors in simulating the climatological regional features of the seasonal mean monsoon.
• Although AGCMs show considerable potential predictability, the skill of seasonal-to-interannual monsoon prediction, based on model hindcast is poor. The cause of the poor prediction skill is likely due to the inability of models to simulate the internal dynamics of the region, i.e., the intraseasonal oscillations.
  Short-term modeling initiatives are focused toward making a serious attempt to improve the simulation of the regional features of the seasonal mean monsoon and toward improving skill in simulating the interannual variability of the monsoon.

OGCMs:
It has been known for many years that ocean models perform well in capturing SST anomalies (SSTAs) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean, but elsewhere the known inaccuracy of all surface fluxes severely limit the ability of OGCM's to accurately simulate SSTA's. This fact has inhibited many ocean models from critically examining their model's SSTA performance, over all regions where those SSTAs have strong statistical correlation with land climate parameters (e.g. monsoon rainfall). However, in the last 3 years at least 4 groups worldwide have started such work for the Pacific and Indian Ocean basins - the probable region of SST influence on the monsoon. As outlined in the Panel's Implementation Plan, OGCMs that accurately reproduce observed SSTAs when forced with observed fluxes (if the latter were perfect) are crucial to successful simulation of the monsoon in coupled models.

Initial results from OGCMs forced with observed fluxes show encouraging skill in simulating SSTAs in the Indian Ocean and off-equatorial Pacific Ocean, though it is considered that this skill is as yet probably well below the level required for successful coupled modelling of the monsoons.


Modeling recommendations:

Bearing in mind the modelling "state-of-the art", and the characteristics of SSTAs in the Indian Ocean, the usual strength of the intraseasonal variability during the 1997-98 ENSO , the Panel proposes the following recommendations to the CLIVAR SSG:

AGCMs

• Simulation by a set of AGCMs that have demonstrated skills in simulating the monsoon for 20 years (1979-1998). Comparison by different AGCMs will establish the state of the art in simulating the mean monsoon and to indicate directions for improved simulation.
• Ensemble runs to be carried out with monthly SST and weekly SST, to decipher the role of short-term SST forcing on intraseasonal oscillations.
• It is proposed that a detailed GCM intercomparison of ensemble forecasts should be carried out for the following period.

A subcommittee within the monsoon panel was set up to coordinate the modeling (Drs. Kang, Shukla and Goswami)

OGCMs:

The Panel recommends that an ocean equivalent of the "AMIP" experiments should be undertaken, to assess the present-day skill of OGCMs in simulating SSTAs, in global, Pacific-Indian and Indian Ocean OGCMs. Since this is a new initiative, it is worth spelling out the steps required. They are being negotiated with likely modeling groups at the time of writing, but a possible procedure is as follows:

1. A standard global climatology of surface wind stresses and heat and freshwater fluxes should be prepared for use in the intercomparison study. A climatology of observed seasonal values of the Indonesian Throughflow should also be prepared, based on XBT.
   data.
2. Ocean modelling groups should be invited to participate in an intercomparison of model SST performance over the Indian Ocean. Groups with global or Pacific-Indian models should use the full surface flux climatology; those with Indian Ocean models should use the XBT-based Indonesian Throughflow as a boundary condition. Participants would be asked to find the seasonal heat and freshwater flux corrections needed in their models to restore their model to observed mean seasonal SST and SSS, respectively.
3. A gridded data set of wind stresses and speeds, based on SSM/I winds, should be prepared to cover the period 1996 through 1998. OGCM performance in simulating observed Indian Ocean SSTAs during this unusual period, using this data set and assuming climatological shortwave radiation, would be intercompared.
   

This project needs to be coordinated with the CLIVAR Upper Ocean Panel. (Coordinators: Godfrey, Murtugudde, McCreary).

Regional models

For accurate simulation of regional climate, it may be necessary to embed nested high resolution regional climate model in AGCMs.

• Carry out and assess the performance of regional models in simulating the 1997-98 monsoon over (a) the Indian monsoon region and (b) the East Asian region.
• Explore the sensitivity of regional climate models to changes in vegetation and soil moisture.

Monsoon definition

There is a need to better define the monsoon and its interannual variability in terms its regional and global contexts.  Research in this direction is encouraged.

5. Long-term monitoring (LTM)

LTM of monsoon-related parameters e.g. SST, salinity, ocean surface wind, precipitation, land surface temperature, soil moisture , snow cover, vegetation and tropospheric wind, temperature and humidity fields should be maintained both by ground based and satellite observations.

Recommendations

• Selected surface flux measurement platforms implemented during GAME/SCSMEX for long-term monitoring.
• GAME-AAN, including Tibean Plateau, Central Asia should be maintained up to the 2005 time frame.
• The buoy arrays and AWS in SCSMEX also need to be continued.
• Japanese ship observations (JEXAM) need to be continued.

In order to fill gaps in the monitoring arrays:

• ATLAS/TRITON buoys need to be expanded to the equatorial East Indian Ocean to coordinate with JASMINE
  

• Relatively sparse observation network of GCOS over the Indian Ocean basin need to be enhanced.  In particular the upper air sounding/wind profiling over Gan Island need to be deployed.

Long-term data collection and re-construction

• Long-term daily precipitation archive over the whole AA monsoon region should be processed in cooperation with GEWEX/GPCP, with support from WCRP/CLIVAR for necessary capacity building capabilities, e.g. PC, software and training.

• Daily station precipitation data over land regions and islands.

• Precipitation over oceans in the AA monsoon region from field experiments, SCSMEX, JASMINE.

• Snow cover and soil moisture data over Asian monsoon land mass

Satellite monitorings

• Maximize usage of satellite data in conjunction with in situ observations for monsoon studies

• The following variables are most important in meeting the AA-monsoon program objectives:

The proposed GPS sounding of temperature and water vapor profiles is particularly relevant to the AA-monsoon program and it will alleviate some of the problems in conventional data in the AA-monsoon regions.

6. Data quality and observing network

Initiate WCRP/CLIVAR action items, in conjunctions with GCOS , to deal with systematic errors/biases of RAOB data which are found in many Asian monsoon countries. Possible climatic biases due to decreasing observations (e.g. in Russia) need to be discussed under WMO/WCRP/IPCC initiatives

Background

The WCRP/GCOS observing system for earth climate is identified in the CLIVAR Implementation Plan (Sec. 4.2.3) as an integral part of the CLIVAR observing system. However, this network is inadequate for monitoring the detailed structure and variability of the monsoon.  For example, the GCOS Upper Air Network has no sounding stations in the Indian subcontinent. Operational sounding stations do exist within this region, but they have been declining in number in recent years and data quality is frequently poor. Therefore supplemental elements of a sustained CLIVAR system need to be identified that are relevant to the AA Monsoon Program scientific objectives.

Recommendations

• CLIVAR SSG needs to push for the establishment of international data centers to meet the need of the data requirement for all the panels.
• The establishment of an ad hoc working group to define the elements of an atmospheric and land surface observing system necessary to meet the scientific needs of the AA monsoon program.
• Facilitate and promote networking within present international monsoon groups/individuals in forming a data inventory catalog of monsoon rainfall data and other related atmospheric and oceanic data.

7 Report of business session

An executive AA-monsoon panel meeting was held on April 22, at 5:00 pm -7:00m in the Kyongju Hotel after the last science session of the Monsoon Conference.

The following items were discussed

Open exchange of research data
Dr. Shukla and McBride proposed an effort to collect and archive long-term historical data e.g. rainfall and temperature over the AA-monsoon region. It was stressed that all data should be open and readily available to the scientific community.

Rotation of Panel membership
It was decided that panel memberships shall be rotated on a three-meeting (approximately three-year) basis. Each time 4 members will be rotated or retained, as recommended by the panel. The co-chairs will select the first four members for rotation in the first round. Members whose terms are up will be informed before their last (usually the third) panel meeting. Members who wish to continue a second term will have to be approved by the co-chairs based on the recommendation of the other members of the panel.

Next Meeting
The time of the next meeting will be approximately one year from April, 1998. Several possible venues were proposed: 

1. Shanghai, China in conjunction with the GEWEX International Conference
2. University of Hawaii
3. BMRC, Melbourne, Australia

Appendix A

Summary of 1997-98 monsoon anomalies

Summary of climate anomalies in the AA-monsoon region during 1997-98

South Asia:

The monsoon rainfall for 1997 summer monsoon was near normal over the Indian subcontinent. India received 102% of its climatological summer rainfall. There was a relative lull in the rainfall activity during June. From July onwards, the cumulative rainfall in all of the 32 subdivision remained near normal or above normal.

Interpretation: Strong intraseasonal variability seemed to have countered or weakened remote influence due to ENSO over India subcontinent. Satellite rainfall indicates that the ENSO large scale influence is largest over the equatorial Indian Ocean. Unprecedented warmth in the Indian Ocean may have played a significant role invigorating the Indian monsoon. However, all India rainfall should not be used to represent the variability of the entire Asian monsoon
The SST over the Indian equatorial Ocean, especially on the western side was abnormally high. Off the coast of East Africa on the western Indian Ocean, TRMM satellite rainfall detected large rainfall anomalies coinciding with the warm water. This warm water and the increased convective activity might have been the source region for strong intraseasonal variability of the monsoon over South Asia.
The ECMWF ensemble monsoon forecast for the 1997 Indian monsoon showed that there are large variability among individual forecasts ranging from dry, wet to near normal conditions over the Indian subcontinent, suggesting that the Indian monsoon of 1997 is very chaotic.

East Asia:

The impact of the 1997 ENSO on the summer monsoon of China was very pronounced. During May to July, excessive rainfall was found in southern China with some areas reporting 300% above normal rainfall. Northern China (near the Qingdao) experienced the worst drought in a 100 years. In August, the situation was eased. The 1997-98 summer was warm and wet in northern China, consistent with previous ENSO experience.
For Japan and Korea the 1997-98 winter was highly variable. On the average, it was warm and wet. TRMM satellite images shows large rainfall anomalies just south of Japan, suggested the subtropical jetstream has extended eastward and southward. The anomaly pattern was generally consistent with those from previous ENSO, but intraseasonal variation was again very large.

Maritime continent:

Drought conditions prevailed over Indonesia, but the degree of rainfall reduction varies greatly from place to place.

Australia:

During the 1997-98 winter, Australia rainfall was near normal. Enhanced rainfall was found on the northeastern region. No large drought conditions occurred. TRMM satellite rainfall revealed that most of the precipitation reduction was found north of Australia. A large SST anomaly was found stretching from the Southern Indian Ocean, skipping over Australia, but connecting with the southwestern Pacific near New Zealand.

Possible interpretation: The unprecedented warmth of the Indian Ocean SST anomaly and the unusual strength of the intraseasonal variability (the two may be related ) might have influence the AA-monsoon, through local lower boundary forcing or increased internal dynamics so as to weaken the remote forcing from ENSO.

APRIL 20

8:30 am to 9:30 am 

OPENING SESSION

Welcoming remark: Dr. Sung-Euii Moon, Administrator and permanent presentative of WMO, Korea Meteorological Administration.
Remark from GEWEX Project Office  (P. Try)
Objectives of panel meeting / report of CLIVAR AA-monsoon Implementation Plan (Lau/Godfrey)

9:30 am - 10:10 am

SHORT REPORTS (20 min)
Chair: Sumi/Kang

Report of GAME (Yasunari)
Report of SCSMEX (Lau/Johnson)

10:10 am - 10:30 am: Break

10:30 am to 12:00

SCIENTIFIC PRESENTATION/DISCUSSION (30 minute):
Chair: Lau/Godfrey

Scientific rationale of JASMINE - Webster
BOBMEX - Sengupta
Indonesia/western Pacific Ocean - Godfrey

1:30 pm to 2:30 pm

SCIENTIFIC PRESENTATION/DISCUSSION  (cont'd)
Indian Ocean - McCreary
Satellite oceanography - Halpern

2:30 pm to 5:30 pm

NATIONAL MONSOON PROGRAMS/PRIORITIES (15 minutes each):
Chair: Johnson/Li

India (Goswami/S. K. Dube)
China (Li/Pu)
Korea (Kang/Ho)
Australia (McBride)
Japan (Sumi/Yamazaki)
Indonesia (Sribimawati)
IPRC/Hawaii (Miyata/B.Wang)
(Other related short presentations, if time allows):  G. Wu ,,  C.Li 


APRIL 21

8:30 am -10:00 am 
Chair: Goswami/McBride
Modeling and prediction - Shukla (30 min)
Discussion/short presentations of monsoon-related anomalies, success and failures, impacts, lessons learn from 1997-98 warm events

10:30 am - 12:00 noon

DISCUSSION/WRITING GROUPS: 

Proposed implementation of JASMINE (Chair: Webster)

Proposed implementation of Indonesian initiatives (Chair: Godfrey/McCreary)

Modeling and Prediction Initiativies (Chair: Gowsami/Shukla)

1:30 pm to 5:30 pm

REPORT FROM WORKING GROUP CHAIRS. 

How to pull all these together
Work plan and schedule

APRIL 22 (WHOLE DAY)

JOINT SESSION WITH INTERNATIONAL MONSOON WORKSHOP

EVENING SESSION: EXECUTIVE SESSION -Wrap up of Monsoon Panel business, work plan, meeting schedule.

Appendix C

List of Attendees


GODFREY, Prof. J. Stuart
CSIRO
Division of Marine Research
G.P.O. Box 1538
Hobart, Tas 7001
AUSTRALIA
e-mail: godfrey@ml.csiro.au
tel: +61-362-325210

GOSWAMI, Prof. B.N.
Center for Atmospheric and Oceanic Science
Indian Institute of Science
Bangalore 560012
INDIA
e-mail:  goswamy@caos.iisc.ernet.in
fax:  +91-80-3341683

HALPERN, Dr. David
Jet Propulsion Laboratory, M.S.  300-323
California Institute of Technology
Pasadena, CA  91109-8099
e-mail:  halpecn@pacific.jpl.nasa.gov
fax:  1-818-393-6720

JOHNSON, Prof. Richard H.
Department of Atmospheric Science
Colorado State University
Fort Collins, CO  80523
e-mail:  rhj@vortex.atmos.colostate.edu
fax:  970-491-8449

KANG, Prof. In-Sik
Department of Atmospheric Sciences
Seoul National University
Seoul 151-742
KOREA
e-mail:  kang@climate.snu.ac.kr
fax:  +82-2-885-7357

LAU, Dr. William K.M.
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Mail Code 913, Bldg 22
Greenbelt, MD  20771
e-mail:  lau@climate.gsfc.nasa.gov
tel:  301-286-7208
fax:  301-286-1759

LI, Prof. Chongyin
Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Chinese Academy of Science
P.O. Box 2718
Beijing  100080
PEOPLE's REPUBLIC OF CHINA
e-mail:  lcy@lasgsgi4.iap.ac.cn
tel:  +86-10-62560172
fax:  +86-10-62562347

MCBRIDE, Dr. John
Bureau of Meteorological Research Center
G.P.O. Box 1289k
Melbourne, Australia  3001
e-mail:  jomcbride@bom.gov.au
fax:  6-1-3-9669-4660

MCCREARY, Dr. Julian P.
NSU Oceanographic Center
8000 North Ocean Drive
Dania, FL  33004
e-mail:  jay@ocean.nova.edu
tel:  945-920-1909

MIYATA, Dr. Motoyasu
IPRC Liaison Office
c/o Tokai Univ. Pacific Center
2241 Kapiolni Blvd., Room 1010
Honolulu, HI  96826
e-mail:  muyata@hq.esto.or.jp
     esto@po.cnethi.net
tel:  808-983-4125
fax:  808-983-4199

MURTUGUDDE, Dr. Ragu
NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center
Mail Code 970, Bldg. 22
Greenbelt, MD  20771
e-mail:  ragu@maya.gsfc.nasa.gov
tel:  301-286-2071

OH, Dr. Jai-Ho
METRI
2 Waryong-dong, Chongno-ku
Seoul 110-360
KOREA
e-mail:  jho@iris.metri.re.kr
fax:  +82-2-763-8209

PATTERSON, Mr. Mike
NOAA Office of Global Programs
1100 Wayne Avenue, Suite 1225
Silver Spring, MD  20910
e-mail:  patterson@ogp.noaa.gov
tel:  301-427-2089 Ext. 14
fax:  301-427-2073

PU, Dr. Shuzhen
First Institute of Oceanography
State Oceanic Administration
3A Hongdao Zhi Road
P.O. Box 98
Qingdao, Shandong
266003
PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA
tel:  +86-532-2866810 Ext. 363
fax:  +86-532-2879562

SENGUPTA, Dr. Debasis
Center for Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
Indian Institute of Science
Bangalore 560012
INDIA
e-mail:  dsen@caos.iisc.ernet.in
fax:  +91-80-3341683

SHUKLA, Dr. Jagadish
COLA/IGES
4041 Powder Mill Road, #302
Calverton, MD  20705
e-mail:  shukla@cola.iges.org
tel:  301-595-7000
fax:  301-595-9793

SRIBIMAWATI, Dr. Tien
Agency for the Assessment & Application of Technology (BPPT)
BPPT. Main Bldg., 19th Floor
Je. MH Thamrin
Jakarta, INDONESIA
e-mail:  tien@gatotkaca.bbpt.go.id
   sribimawati@hatmail.com
fax:  +62-21-316-0982

SUMI, Prof. Akimasa
University of Tokyo
Center for Climate System Research
4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo
JAPAN
e-mail:  sumi@ccsr.u-tokyo.ac.jp
fax:  +81-3-5453-3964

TRY, Dr. Paul D.
International GEWEX Project Office
1100 Wayne Avenue, Suite 1210
Silver Spring, MD  20910
e-mail:  gewex@cais.com
tel:  301-427-2089 ext. 37
fax:  301-427-2222

WEBSTER, Prof. Peter J.
University of Colorado, Boulder 
Program in Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences
Campus Box 311
Boulder, CO  80309
e-mail:  pjw@willywilly.colorado.edu
tel:  303-492-5882
fax:  303-492-3524

WU, Dr. Guoxiong
LASG
Institute of Atmospheric Physics
Chinese Academy of Science
P.O. Box 2718
Beijing 100080
PEOPLE's REPUBLIC OF CHINA
e-mail:  gxwu@lasgsgi4.iap.ac.cn
fax:  +86-10-62562347

YAMAZAKI, Dr. Nobuo
Meteorological Research Institute
1-1, Nagamine, Tsnkuba Ibaraki 305
JAPAN
e-mail:  nyamzak@mri-jma.go.jp
tel:  +81-298-53-8668
fax:  +81-298-55-2683

YASUNARI, Prof. Tetsuzo
Institute of Geoscience
University of Tsukuba
Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305
JAPAN
e-mail:  yasunari@atm.geo.tsukuba.ac.jp
tel:  +81-298-53-4399
fax:  +81-298-51-9764