This study shows how climate change due to humans has affected the probability that extreme events in South America and Southern Africa evolved in the way that they did.
An apples to apples comparison of global temperatures.
When comparing global temperatures estimated from observations with climate model simulations, challenges include issues related to incomplete observational data. Here we quantify the influence of different observational data types.
Drifts/biases are often present when climate models are initialized from observed conditions to produce climate predictions.Model drifts are usually removed for skill assessment but they are rarely analysed.
Compared with the not evident increase of Pacific heat content, Indian Ocean heat content has dramatically increased over the "hiatus" period.
The observed precipitation in South America exhibits significant anomalies when there are strong sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in different parts of equatorial Pacific. The study analyses how models simulate these influences in present day climate simulations.