VACS Southern and Eastern African Climate Predictability Workshop:

Dar es Salaam 10-13th July 2006

VACS workshop outline (note that this is still subject to modification - last update 07.7.06)

Monday, July 10

8.30-8.45: Welcome and Introduction to goals of workshop (Chris Reason)

Southern and East African Climate and its Variability

8:45 – 9:05: Basic Climate Dynamics  (Kerry Cook)

·      Description of the climate dynamics of southern and eastern Africa, placing the region in a global context

·      Observations of rainfall and its seasonal cycle

·      Role of and formation of the major features of the atmospheric circulation

 

9:05 – 9:40     Regional Oceanography  (Chris Reason)

·      The SST climatology and variability

·      Base state and circulation

·      Annual cycle of SST, thermocline depth

·      Focus on important features for African climate such as the cold tongue, the thermocline ridge NE of Madagascar, the Agulhas retroflection, the tropical - subtropical cells

·      The Benguela Nino

 

9:40 – 10:00: Introduction to Regional Variability  (Richard Washington)

·      Distinguishing between internal variability and forced variability

·      The elements of the mean circulation and SST that are prone to variability and how the rainfall time series changes

10.00-11.30 Tea, opening ceremony

11.30-12.30 Variability related to the Indian and Pacific Oceans (Kerry Cook & Ale Giannini)

·      Indian Ocean dipole modes

·      Overall warming

·      Feedbacks with upwelling

·      Subtropical SST modes and their influence on  southern Africa south of about 10ºS in JFM 

·      ENSO

12.30-13.30 Lunch

13:30 – 14:00 Recent Large-scale Climate Anomalies (Wassila Thiaw)

·      The very wet summer 05/06 in Namibia, Botswana, most of South Africa, parts of Angola

·      The ongoing drought in Kenya, Uganda, Sudan

·      Connections with the variability modes discussed above

·      Note that the contrasting East and southern African rainfall anomalies in 06, especially OND, are a recurring pattern.

14.00-14.45  Prediction Methods

·      Dynamical prediction, including a theoretical/practical demonstration of dynamical model based prediction with PRECIS animations of about 8-10 minutes (Joseph Intsiful).

·      Statistical prediction (Willem Landman)

 

14.45-15.45  Evaluating Forecasts (Willem Landman / Simon Mason)

·      Aspects of forecast quality (accuracy, skill, reliability, resolution value etc)

·      Attributes of verification scores (propriety, equitability, effectiveness, and locality)

·      Differences between verification of discrete vs. continuous forecasts, and between deterministic vs probabilistic forecasts

·       Forecast scoring recommended in the WMO SVSLRF, emphasizing probabilistic verification, reliability (reliability diagrams) and resolution/discimination

·       Example of constructing reliability and ROC diagrams using DEMETER forecasts

15.30-16.00 Tea (also poster presentations from participants)

16.00-17.00 Climate Variability and its Predictability (Richard Washington)

·       Practical session...

17.00-17.45 RANET (Rosemary)

 

Tuesday, July 11

8.30-9.00 Review of previous day's sessions (nominated participants)

9.00-9.45 Climate Prediction Tool theory, assumptions, constraints (Simon Mason)

9.45-17.30 Climate Prediction Tool – hands on training & applications (tea Breaks at 10.30 and 15.30, lunch at 12.30) (Simon / Willem / Wassila / Joseph / Andy / Ale)

 

Wednesday, July 12,

8.30-9.00 Review of previous day's sessions (nominated participants)

9.00-17.30 Climate Prediction Tool – hands on training & applications (tea breaks  at 10.30-11.00 and 15.30-16.00, lunch at 12.30-13.30) (Simon / Willem / Wassila / Joseph / Andy / Ale)

Thursday, July 13 (afternoon joint with the CLIVAR VACS panel)

8.30-9.00 Review of previous day's sessions (nominated participants)

9.00-12.30      Climate Prediction Tool – hands on training & applications (tea break at 10-10.30 (Simon / Willem /  Wassila / Joseph / Andy / Ale)

Examples of potential applications during Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday morning – wet and dry spell frequency and intensity during the rainy season, variability in onset and cessation of the rainy season, impacts on health conditions, tourism, agriculture, fisheries, forestry and water resources, development of climate indices useful for agricultural, health, water resource and other applications.

Each participant should be asked to do a project with CPT of relevance to their home country.

12.30-13.30     Lunch

13.30-14.00 Dynamical model based prediction (Joseph Intsiful)

14.00-14.30  The need for regionally specific research programmes that target the unique climatic features, geography, and needs of equatorial East Africa (the area with bimodal rainfall) and southern Africa (area with a single main summer rainy season). Data archived at African NMS and ocean services and data availability to scientists and operational workers throughout the region (Chris R, all)

14.30-16.00    Parallel sessions aimed at refining the East African programme & Southern African research programme (SAGRADEX). Linkages with other programmes (eg IOGOOS, IOP, WGSIP). Development of a collaborative research network between NMS’s and universities in Africa and appropriate international institutions (Laban Ogallo/ Fred Semazzi et al. for East and Chris Reason/ Richard Washington et al for Southern)

16.00-16.20     Tea 

16.20-17.20     Plenary – report backs from parallel sessions

17.20-17.50 Final review of workshop sessions (nominated participants)

17.50-18.00    Summary and closing remarks

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For further details contact Chris Reason (VACS co-chair) or Nico Caltabiano (ICPO staffer).

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