International CLIVAR Project Office
National Oceanography Centre
European Way
Southampton, SO14 3ZH, UK
Phone: +44-2380 596777
Fax: +44-2380 596204
Email: icpo@noc.soton.ac.uk
WCRP Decadal Prediction
 
Predicting The Climate Of The Coming DecadesRSMAS, Miami, USA
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Presentations
Day 1 (Monday, Jan 11, 2010):
Opening Remarks - Amy Clement and Ben Kirtman (RSMAS)
Climate Science & Services: Providing the Information That People Need For A Changing World - Chet Koblinsky (NOAA)
Keynote Lectures
Decadal-scale Climate Information - Lisa Goddard (IRI)
Challenges and Opportunities for Decadal Projections: A View from the ENSO Trenches - Kenny Broad (Univ. of Miami/RSMAS)
Session 1: Progress in Decadal Predictions
Session Chair: Ben Kirtman
Keynote Lecture
Predicting the Climate of the Coming Decades - Doug Smith (UK Met Office)
Decadal Prediction in the Pacific Region - Jerry Meehl (NCAR)
Decadal Prediction and Predictability in the Tropical Pacific - Mark Cane (Columbia Univ.)
Session 2: Risk and Decision-Making
Session Chair: Bob Meyer (Univ. of Miami)
Keynote lecture
At War with the Weather and Other Extreme Events: Managing Large-Scale Risks in a New Era of Catastrophes - Howard Kunreuther (Univ. of Penn.)
Catastrophe Risk and the Role of Government - Frank Nutter (Reinsurance Association of America)
Carry an Umbrella? Order 100 Umbrellas? Temporal Horizons in Decision Making - Dave Krantz (Columbia Univ.)
Trends, Decadal Processes, and Rainfall Insurance for Farmers in Ethiopia - Dan Osgood (IRI)
Climate Predictions and Decision Making - Dave Letson (RSMAS)
Day 2 (Tuesday, Jan 12, 2010):
Keynote Lectures
Heidi Cullen (Climate Central)
Observed 20th Century Interdecadal Variability - Mike Wallace (Univ. of Washington)
Session 3: Mechanisms of Decadal Variability: Part I
Session Chair: Amy Clement
Quantifying Decadal Predictability due to Low-Frequency Indo-Pacific Ocean Variability - Amy Solomon (NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center)
GFDL Research on Decadal Variability, Predictability and Predictions - Tom Delworth (NOAA-GFDL)
Decadal Hindcasts and Forecasts at GFDL - Tony Rosati (NOAA-GFDL)
Weather Noise Forcing of Low Frequency Variability in the North Atlantic - Ed Schneider (COLA/GMU)
Decadal Predictability and Prediction in CCSM3 - Rob Burgman (RSMAS)
Session 4: Water Resource Management & Agricultural Application
Session Chair: Lisa Goddard (IRI)
Implications of Climate Change on Water Management in the Coming Decades - J. Obeysekera (SFWMD) (no videos)
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: Impacts, Mechanisms & Projections - Dave Enfield (NOAA-AOML)
Decadal Climate Variability and Agricultural Systems: Examples from the Argentine Pampas - Guillermo Podesta (RSMAS)
Water and Natural Resources Management: Decadal Predictability Issues - Kelly Redmond (Desert Research Institute)
What Needs to be Predicted if we are to Predict Decadal Hydroclimate Variability and Change? - Richard Seager (Lamont-Doherty)
Day 3 (Wednesday, Jan 13, 2010):
Keynote Lectures
Session Chair: Brian Soden
Decadal Climate Variability in the Pacific: Causes and Predictability, Decadal Climate Projections as Part of a Climate Service - Scott Power (Australian Bureau of Meteorology)
Bob Meyer (Univ. of Miami)
Session 5: Climate & Extreme Events and Coastal Processes
Session Chair: Ad Reniers (RSMAS)
Observed Variations in Atlantic Hurricane Activity - Chris Landsea (NOAA- National Hurricane Center)
Attribution, Prediction and Projection of Hurricane Activity Changes - Gabe Vecchi (NOAA- GFDL)
Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level Rise and Storms - Nathaniel Plant (USGS)
Tropical Cyclone Decision Support Tool for IFRC operations in Latin America and the Caribbean - Dan Osgood (IRI)
Session 6: Mechanisms of Decadal Variability: Part II
Session Chair: Rana Fine (RSMAS)
Forced and Internally Generated 21st Century Decadal "Potential Predictability" - George Boer (CCCma)
Co-variability of Tropical Cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific - Chunzai Wang (NOAA-AOML)
Expendable Bathythermograph (XBT) and SST Data: Studies of Global Decadal Ocean Heat Content and Regional Processes/Problems and Opportunities - Bob Molinari (CIMAS)
Living With Uncertainty: The Role of Weather Noise in Future Climate Change - Clara Deser (NCAR)
Session7: Paleo-Perspectives on Decadal Variability
Session Chair: Jim Kinter
Looking Back at Drought. Has Anything Changed? - Lowell Stott (USC)
Sea-Level Changes for the Last 2000 Years: Paleo-Perspectives on Decadal Variability - Ben Horton (Univ of Penn)
The Recognition of Multi-Decadal Scale Climate Variability in the Palaeorecord over the Past 1000 Years -Peter Swart (RSMAS)
Rapid Sea Level Rise Steps are the Norm in Post Glacial Rise - Hal Wanless (Univ. of Miami)
Day 4 (Thursday, Jan 14, 2010):
Session 8: Climate & Public Lands
Session Chair: Carol Daniels (CESU)
Keynote Lectures
Responding to the Challenge of Climate Change: National Park Service Strategies - Leigh Welling (National Park Service)
Climate Change and Coastal Public Lands - Laurie McGilvray (Office of ocean and coastal management - NOAA)
Session 9: Climate & Marine Ecosystems
Session Chair: Kenny Broad (Univ. of Miami/RSMAS)
Climate Change and Coral Reefs: What Does the Future Hold? - Mark Eakin (NOAA)
Forecasting Climate Impacts on Coral Reefs in the Coming Decades: Understanding Regional Differences in Coral Bleaching Response and the Influence of Adaptation and Acclimatization - Andrew Baker (RSMAS)
Impact of hydroclimatic factors on larval dispersion and marine population connectivity - Claire Paris (RSMAS)
New Thoughts on Nitrogen Cycling: Implications for the Biological Pump on Decadal Timescales - Angie Knapp (RSMAS)
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