WORKING GROUP ON SEASONAL AND INTERANNUAL PREDICTION
Under SMIP, two experimental protocols using atmospheric general circulation models were set up up to investigate: (1) potential seasonal predictability (SMIP-2) using observed SST, and (2) actual predictability using forecast SST (SMIP-2/HFP). These projects include international contributions from DEMETER, PROVOST, DSP and APCC. These coordinated numerical experiments clearly demonstrate that successful seasonal prediction is a multi-model and multi-institutional problem.
Date:
Mon, 12/09/2011 - Wed, 14/09/2011
WGSIP aims to develop a programme of numerical experimentation for seasonal-to-interannual variability and predictability, paying special attention to assessing and improving predictions. Further research aims are to develop appropriate data assimilation, model initialization and forecasting procedures for seasonal-to-interannual predictions, and to consider such factors as observing system evaluation, use of ensemble and probabilistic methods and statistical and empirical enhancements, and measures of forecast skill.
